Mark Ruess on Bloomberg production early 4th quarter

[WoW Factor]

Ruess: "big red bow" for Christmas.

[ABorC]

Great interview

[JB]

Mark Reuss rocks...obtainable supercar performance rear mid engine with the targa top ...

z51 fe4 dct kicks serious supercar butt..

Mr Reuss is the best gm president ever!

IMO a real car enthusiasts

[meyerweb]

John, if production starts early 4th quarter, when do you think we'd see the first deliveries, given QC holds and that sort of thing at the start of production?

[Bikerjulio]

"be in production early forth quarter". October then?

BTW the market reaction was favourable with a 1.25% boost in the stock price today (Friday following the reveal).

[John]

I respect Mark Reuss 100%. At the same time what he stated does not jibe with GM’s written production schedules. Starting with we know that the C7’s production at the earliest ends middle of September (and might not end until the end of September). The C7 to C8 plant conversation process will take two months. Then the production starts at a snails pace, e.g., one C8 per hour — then as QC checks confirm each one is meeting standards, they could increase the rate. During the similar time period for the C7 start up, it took three months from first one being built to eventual full rate production. Full rate is defined by BGA’s Plant Manager, Kai Spande, at 11.5 units per hour. Then when the first ones are done, they are placed in a quality control hold area to insure that if needed due to later finding an issue, they then would check all the vehicles on site that are parked in the QC hold area (it holds up to 1,500 cars we know and might have been expanded much larger than that). Most expect the QC hold to last a full month.

All the above still works out to the first customers receiving their C8’s approximately in the January 15-Feb 7th time period.

[ZORA 69]

OH, The Pain, waiting another six months for delivery. ?? I got maybe by Christmas ?? from the interview? But I understand John's more informed and detailed explanation of GM's written Production Schedules.

[John]

The key difference IMO is when the first one will be completed, compared to when the first one will be delivered. Might GM’s internal goal be to have the first one done before Christmas, but with the every winter two week Christmas/New Year’s two week vacation and then the expected four week QC hold coming right then and into mid-January, I will predict that the very first one will arrive at a dealership on January 25th. [It is as good a guess as I can predict based on teas leaves. No one birdie has been whispering.]

[JustOneMore]

John, definitely not questioning your reasoning, but since it has been said MEs have been being built mixed in w/the C7, is it possible the plant conversion won't take two months?

[WoW Factor]

Chevy Dude of Bachman Chevrolet said that his final C7 orders have a build date in August. Thus C7 production might end by late August.

If this is the case C8 change-over would be during September. And C8 production could begin sometime in October.

This timeline is consistent with Mark Ruess's "early 4th quarter".

[John]

That is probably correct information for his orders, but one dealer’s ending date is not the ending date for the 3,000+ Chevy dealers. Specifically, we have seen other dealers’ post their having a TPW of September 9th for their C7 production

No matter how many times I post this, it is repeatedly ignored; BGA is going to be closed for the month of October and the month of November.

Production as GM Authority told us in the beginning of this year that C8 production starts in December. Then it starts out at 1 per hour, works its way up slowly as QC confirm cars are meeting 100% of standards, then progressively further. It took 7 months between the time that the last C6 was build (Feb 26, 2013) and when the first customer got his on September 21, 2013). If the last C7 is being built on Sept., 13th (the end of that production week), if comparable timing, the first C8 would be delivered on April 9th. We know that GM has procedures in place this time to reduce that seven months, but can we please, getting false hopes up is not in anyone’s best interest.

Lastly, remember how many times we saw elsewhere the many, many pronouncements of the C8’s reveal starting in August, 2018, then September, then October, then November, then December, then January, then February, then March, then April, then May, then June, with each time we saw that “I have confirmed information that is is going to be revealed on X date and Y location, and were 100% of them wrong?

Any hope of the first customer getting theirs at their dealer before mid January, well please send me some of those super-optimism pills.

[John]

John, definitely not questioning your reasoning, but since it has been said MEs have been being built mixed in w/the C7, is it possible the plant conversion won't take two months?

Yes that is possible. For sure.

GM was originally going to produce 2019 ZR1’s along the line at the same time as their 2018 SR’s, GS’s and Z06’s. But they realized that due to Federal reporting laws, tracking parts by year for warranty and related functions, that they backed off from that plan as unworkable, instead quickly announcing that as of Jan. 29, 2018, all future cars will become 2019’s — and in the process making 2018 the shortest Corvette production year in history.

Yes, they are making pre-customer C8 intermixed occasionally with the C7, but it s not going seamlessly. It is very difficult to do this and interferes with plan production efficiency. If GM could not work out 2018 C7’s integrating on the line with 2019 C7’s, making C7 customer cars and C8 customer cars at the same time will not happen.

Sorry if I am getting a less than positive, but while good questions, the first C8 customer receiving her or his car will not be this year. Doesn’t mean that they are not going to be completed sitting inside the Plant and also sitting outside in the white traveling suits before Christmas, it just means with a one monthly QC hold and with a two week Christmas/New Year’s vacation, sorry but no 2020 C8’s will be in customer hands during 2019.

I hope I eat crow, but even the little birdies are whispering not this year, not this year, not this year for customer deliveries.

[JustOneMore]

With winter less than ideal here it really doesn't matter much, but it would look nice with a big red bow on it.

[ZORA 69]

Yes that is possible. For sure.

GM was originally going to produce 2019 ZR1’s along the line at the same time as their 2018 SR’s, GS’s and Z06’s. But they realized that due to Federal reporting laws, tracking parts by year for warranty and related functions, that they backed off from that plan as unworkable, instead quickly announcing that as of Jan. 29, 2018, all future cars will become 2019’s — and in the process making 2018 the shortest Corvette production year in history.

Yes, they are making pre-customer C8 intermixed occasionally with the C7, but it s not going seamlessly. It is very difficult to do this and interferes with plan production efficiency. If GM could not work out 2018 C7’s integrating on the line with 2019 C7’s, making C7 customer cars and C8 customer cars at the same time will not happen.

Sorry if I am getting a less than positive, but while good questions, the first C8 customer receiving her or his car will not be this year. Doesn’t mean that they are not going to be completed sitting inside the Plant and also sitting outside in the white traveling suits before Christmas, it just means with a one monthly QC hold and with a two week Christmas/New Year’s vacation, sorry but no 2020 C8’s will be in customer hands during 2019.

I hope I eat crow, but even the little birdies are whispering not this year, not this year, not this year for customer deliveries.

I don't know. some of us are just thinking without reason and dreaming. Those that want to be realistic should follow John's knowledge and input on this. I just want mine courtesy delivered from MacMulkin to this Little Chevy dealer here in Florida before they get their first C8 to rub it in their face for not returning my calls when inquiring if I could buy one from them.

[John]

John, definitely not questioning your reasoning, but since it has been said MEs have been being built mixed in w/the C7, is it possible the plant conversion won't take two months?

Sure is possible. Would that not be nice for it to take a shorter amount. There is however one other critical component of plant turnovers, and that is employee training. While I am thinking that the few C8’s being build right now could be getting a major assist from the C8 Development and Integration team members, at some point, half of that team goes back to Michigan until the C9 process starts, meaning that 100% will be done by BGA employees. All this leads to employee training, especially for the 400 new hires, for we need to remember that no assembly line worker is allowed to work on the line (either the primary line or the feeder stations such as for the instrument panel), unless they have reached “level 4 mastery” for two different jobs on that line — with area supervisions needing to achieve level 4 mastery for every single job in their area. Achieving level 4 mastery is not accomplished in an hour or two even for skilled workers, and that is not an employing claiming that they have that skill level, but their being tested to confirm that mastery.

Additionally, from the time that C7 production stops and orders going in, the suppliers need time to gear up in even in a JIT world. So while it could take maybe six weeks for the BGA conversion/upgrade to assembling nothing but C8’s, it is certainly not going to be a shorter time period like four weeks. Personally, I have waited already 4 1/2 years since I put my deposit, and I would like every little baby step to be done perfectly, for every employee to become super skillful, and for all equipment to have arrived at BGA and tested to perfection, before my car is started — even if that were to mean that it would be eight full weeks for the plant changes to be fully implemented.