Rethink: First Customer car deliveries in Dec, Nov, Oct, or maybe even Sept.

[SheepDog]

Last C7, a black Z06, will be auctioned at Barrett-Jackson June 28^th.
Will they auction a Physical car or the rights to the last physical C7 to be made at a later time.
Will Barrett-Jackson auction the Last C7 car, produced approximately when? June 15^th?
No further C7 car production after the “last C7”, which must be completed by when?
There will be a 2 month plant closure for the switch over. When? June 15^th– August 14^th?
The C8s that will be physically presented on July 18^th, 2019. Will this be a car(s) that came down the C8 production line at Bolingreen? Or an irregular car(s) made elsewise?
If the production line is in use to produce official production examples by July 18, 2019, then is it likely that the first customer deliveries will be delayed to December? November? October? Or September?

[John]

Very nice SheepDog; allow me to suggest some possible modifications/amplifications.

First, in response to your question, the June 28th auction will be for the rights to the last produced C7, which we expect will be made later than that, perhaps as late at toward the end of August. We just do not know.

I think your estimate of a two month plant closure is correct, but slide that backwards IMO, to around the fall.

The current production line will be used to make show cars (I have heard six this time instead of the usual four).

The only estimate of SOP we have seen in the media is toward the end of this year. Personally, I think that is accurate and thus I am guessing at the following.

End of C7 production

Sometime this summer. Could be early summer; could be far later than that.

Plant Closure Estimate/Process:

Around a 6-8 week plant closure around the fall, and during this time two major things will be done. First the obvious plant changes to make assembling the C8 easier (it can be done on the existing assembly line but is challenging and extra time consuming according to the line employees), and second, the same massively clever employee re-training that was implemented first by Kai Spande and team during the 17 week fall, 2017, plant closure, the combination of computer virtual training with tools on screen, then actual tools and physically help parts being actual placed in the proper places on physics assembly bucks, then repeated back and forth the next day, then testing to level four mastery — with further training if/as necessary. Then repeating this process for a second job as every BGA assembly line worked is trained and then skilled certified to level four mastery on at least two jobs (supervisors on every job with their complete area.

SLOW, ramp up of customer C8’s:

When the C7 first customer cars were starting to be assembled, they cautiously did it at snail speed. I was told initially it was one car per hour was complex (came off the end of the line).

Then two per hour; then four, etc. The speed of the assembly line for the C8 is not definitively known, but I guess/hope we would learn that from BGA Plant Manager Kai at his BASH seminar.

The last thing we heard was that the Plant was operating at 11.5 units per hour. Whether the C8 is designed to remain at that speed once the initial assembly ramp up is finished, is something we all are interested in knowing.

[golden boy]

Sheep dog why count backwards, i would love to have mine in september

golden boy

[John]

Sorry, but being candid, that will not going to happen, even though we all would wish to get ours in September; here’s why that’s way too optimistic a schedule.

Reveal is July 18th. The press release occurs that day, and the order guide is next released. Even if the order guide were released right away (which has not been the case for most new generation Corvettes), customers need to learn about a whole bunch of new options, ask questions, make decisions, etc. The process is two sided, for dealers, 99% who have not been at the reveal, similarly need to learn all about each option, package of options, etc..

It is therefore highly unlikely that the first orders even go in via the formal ordering consensus until late August (could be an optimistic timeframe). Based on those orders, GM then compiles those orders, to collectively generate take rates for each order-able component. That info then gets sent to suppliers. Typically from the time from initial generation orders first go in, until production of the literal first new generation Corvette VIN # 0001, is not less than four weeks. However, even that is very optimistic because initial C8’s will be assembled in a deliberately-slow, ramp up process, usually starting from a rate of one per hour, then doubling, then over time moving over the next few weeks toward the expected hourly production rate of 11.5 units. It was more than one month from the first customer C7 was built until that assembly line was functioning at full speed.

However, things stretch even longer for a new generation, for with each new generation after its initial cars are built, then go into a mandatory quality control hold (QCH). That is a process where as the new generation cars are built, they are “collected” in an outside yard on Plant grounds. They will sit on BGA grounds for probably four weeks. BTW, during the C7 identical process, 1,500 new C7’s were “collected” on BGA grounds during this QCH. The purpose of this hold is to, if GM finds anything needing fixing thorough the extra intensive quality control reviews of those that have been pulled aside and thoroughly inspected, they are readily available to fix. Conversely, had those 1,500 been immediately dispersed, they would have instead already been at dealerships who had never seen one before, had no parts to fix them, had Techs who had only received basic training, all in comparison to their being at BGA where the best trained C8 employees are, where spare parts are, and where the specific tools designed to work on them are.

Sorry, but for all the above reasons, my belief is that the first C8 might not be driven by their new owners until around the beginning of next year.

[JB]

With that being said...why would gm not wait until january 21 st and label the new c8 a 2021 model year vehicle and give early buyers the benefit of an extra year of depreciation ...

i believe the required on sale date starts january 21st....to be a following year model...

thats what would be a smart move...since we are so close anyway...

[John]

GM will not call the initial C8 a 2021 because then there would not be a 2020 Corvette at all. And can you imagine all the negatory trolls coming out and attacking GM, saying such things as ...

“I told you that GM was in disarray, the C8 was flawed so much they couldn’t even get a 2020 Corvette produced,” yada, yada, yada.

[John]

Congrats JB for your 1111th post. You had added so much to MECF. Thank you very much!

[Bikerjulio]

On the MY question, I looked into it once for a post here, and in theory any car produced after Jan 1st 2020 could be called a 2021 model, but obviously that would go against normal practice, and make no sense.

I just want to know if the convertibles will be produced in the early run.

[Benplace]

I thought it was already leaked that the plant would close in September and production would begin in December?

[JB]

I thought the last c7 was going to built in June and then auctioned off..?

leaving the summer months to move c7 inventory by dealers to garner larger allocations of the upcoming c8...

that closure in June would be the start of the refurbishing the bowling green factory to practice and produce high quality 8 th generation corvettes...

in the meantime bowling green would keep producing the cadillac blackwings for the GM dovision tjat funded a good portion of the bowling green plant updates to produce this rear mid engine sports car...

[John]

I thought it was already leaked that the plant would close in September and production would begin in December?

Rumored but not confirmed, though I personally think those dates are still fairly accurate give or take a little.

[SheepDog]

An example(s) of the C8 will be presented on 07-18-19. Do we know how the 07-18-19 C8s will be produced. If they are mere shells then, that is it that. Shells means nothing

Will the 07-18-19 C8s be final form mid engine cars that are made on a standard production line?

If they are final form cars made on a regular production line, then it seems to me that we will not be waiting until December.

If they can make one car for 07-18-19, then they can make 2 on 07-19-19; and 4 on 07-20-19: and 8 soon-enough after that : and 16 after so many days or weeks later;

The C8 training is probably staggered. Some already have the training. Some certainly have. Prototypes are being made at Bolingreen as we speak . A citizen yesterday provided (and was posted) pictures of C8s rolling down a Kentucky roadway. Those car did not self assemble.

I'm with JB. In my overoptimistic opinion NO later than October 1st, we will see the 1st delivery.

(provided that the 07-18-19 C8s are final form mid engine cars)

[John]

We expect the 7.18.19 revealed cars to be drivable, complete cars as in recent GM Corvette reveals. However, it will not be an approved for production customer car. GM will not make customer cars until after orders go in (roughly September), then suppliers will make the exact parts in the exact colors, for those initial orders. I respectfully disagree that we would see a single customer car until the end of this year (and even that timeframe is merely media speculation — for GM has literally not announced anything — only showing us one camo’d C8 with 7.18.19 on its doors.