Car Loan Delinquencies

[Boomer]

More Americans Are at Least Three Months Behind on Their Car Payment Than Ever Before


This problem has been percolating for a while and seems to be getting worse. According to a report by the NY Federal Reserve Bank, we’re heading toward a critical mass with more than 7 million car loans more than 90 days past due. We all know how this kinda debt problem worked out in the "Great Recession" ten years ago.

If I had to take on debt that would be a struggle for me, there's no way I would spring for a C8.


https://jalopnik.com/more-americans-...-ca-1832577376

[John]

That is a very sobering statistic.

[C8-wannabe]

Wow, repos must be busy!

[Plasboy]

Got a buddy that does repos. He said the rate goes between 11&13 percent and the media just plays it up. Higher rate when the economy is good and people are spending lower in a bad economy.

[Bikerjulio]

I have an interest in this stuff. I read the link all the way through and could not find that big 7 Million number anywhere. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyo...high-gear.html

The total delinquency rate was said to be 2.4% Simple math says that if 2.4% equates to 7 million then the total number of auto loans must be 7,000,000/.024 = 292 million.

Somehow I don't think so.

A more sober look at the overall picture can be found here https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...f/delallsa.htm

A number of 2.05% in the last published quarter, Q3 2018 for non-CC consumer debt looks about at or below the historical average.

More important is the total delinquency rate for all loans. This peaked at a horrific 10.02% in Q1 2010, with a continuous decline ever since to the Q3 2018 rate of 1.92%.

You have to go back 12 years to 2007, to find a rate that low.

[John]

Thank you Bikerjulio. That is quite different news that we saw earlier. This latter news means that for every 50 loans of all kinds, 49 of them are not in default.

[Bikerjulio]

Thank you Bikerjulio. That is quite different news that we saw earlier. This latter news means that for every 50 loans of all kinds, 49 of them are not in default.

The glass is 98% full

The amount of auto debt has been rising fast, no doubt about that. But then when money is almost free, what do you expect? My further research indicates that total # of auto loans is in the 105-110M range.

Looks like to total number of autos in the US is around 275M, so that means you guys have 165M cars, or 60% fully paid off!

[Boomer]

Some complicated math here but Its not a positive thing. The NY Fed says:

A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments

• More than 7 million Americans are at least 90 days behind on their auto loans, according to the New York Fed.
• That's higher than the peak in 2010 as the country was still reeling from the devastating financial crisis.
• The "number of distressed borrowers suggests that not all Americans have benefited from the strong labor market and warrants continued monitoring and analysis of this sector," Fed economists say.

[Bikerjulio]

Some complicated math here but Its not a positive thing. The NY Fed says:

A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments

• More than 7 million Americans are at least 90 days behind on their auto loans, according to the New York Fed.
• That's higher than the peak in 2010 as the country was still reeling from the devastating financial crisis.
• The "number of distressed borrowers suggests that not all Americans have benefited from the strong labor market and warrants continued monitoring and analysis of this sector," Fed economists say.

Can you point to the actual NY Fed release that says this? Or is this some misinterpretation? Journalists are not know for their math skills. Plus I already explained that the numbers don't make sense.

From the table I linked earlier the non-CC delinquent consumer debt peaked at 3.1% in 2010 and is 2.05% at the last reading. That's not higher.

Likewise the total default rate peaked then at 10.02% and is 1.92% at latest read.

Did you look at the link? https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...f/delallsa.htm

[Boomer]

Did you look at the link? https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...f/delallsa.htm

Yea, didn't see any car debt data there. Probably a part of the "Consumer Loan" category but that includes alot of other stuff.

I don't believe the NY Fed has been misquoted.

[Bikerjulio]

Yea, didn't see any car debt data there. Probably a part of the "Consumer Loan" category but that includes alot of other stuff.

I don't believe the NY Fed has been misquoted.

You just cannot point us to the source then? The link you posted to would indicate there are more car loans than the total number of cars in the US.

Not saying this applies here of course, but did you see this? https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...ws-on-facebook

[Busa Dave]

Well one thing to sit back and ponder is this...……. As the Loan Terms have gone I believe to 6 and even 7 years folks go and buy a new vehicle and then something happens such that they get behind on payments. Problem is they also get upside down quickly in many cases and when times are tough it may be very hard to pay on a vehicle that what you actually owe is much less than it's ACV. People have to make the decision where limited funds that they do have can be best applied and it is easier to let a 50k loan balance go delinquent on the vehicle that may be only worth 40k especially if they has not taken care of it shall we say.

When and if enough of this happens it is going to be problematic for the lenders who will have to reconcile all of this against earnings. The way I look at this is ok--------what else is out there with respect to consumer debt that is going to be problematic in the future? We have had so many years of low interest rates when rates do start to increase significantly this type of problem will only get worse if nothing else changes. This will also cascade into the Leased vehicle contract owners because if the problem is bad enough it may drive down resale values that were locked in years earlier adding more bottom line exposure to banks and even vehicle manufacturers who underwrite these instruments with their respective finance arms.

I hate to pay interest----would much rather receive it! LOL..

[Boomer]

You just cannot point us to the source then? The link you posted to would indicate there are more car loans than the total number of cars in the US.

Not saying this applies here of course, but did you see this? https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...ws-on-facebook

OK. You win!! No car debt problem in US. Thanks.

[Boomer]

Well one thing to sit back and ponder is this...…….

Good economic connection to bad car loans.

[3 Z06ZR1]

Love my 800 credit score. Even though I seldom carry a balance.