C7 Deliveries Not Good

[John]

Both the 3rd quarter of this year compared to the 3rd quarter of last year, and separately deliveries to customers from the beginning of this year through Sept. 30th, when compared to that nine month period one year ago, are also down. Deliveries to customers are down 10.5% and 21.2% respectively for the two time periods.

In columns below, first is this year’s number, last year’s second, then the percentage different between the two; then this pattern is repeated for the second batch of year to date numbers.

Corvette

4,639

5,184

-10.5

14,881

18,891

-21.2

What is especially concerning, is that projecting the first three quarters of sales, they project to less than 20,000 units per year — and we are all cognizant that Corvettes sales in many parts of the country will drop precipitously during the months of October, November and December due to weather conditions.

And also unnerving is that the last time we time we saw annual projections at the end of June, we the estimated end of the year Corvettes sales at around 24,000 units.

It is time for GM to greatly increase its C7 cash flex deals to its dealers, in tern they to their direct customers, move out the current 20K unsold C7s, and clear the way for the soonest-possible reveal of the 2020 Corvette ME.

[WoW Factor]

With 3rd quarter sales being only 4,639 (1,546 per month) the C7 will be discontinued. All emphasis with be on the C8.

[Bluevette]

I wonder what factors are leading to the drops? I'm willing to bet that one of them is the fact that the C8 is right around the corner.

[Bikerjulio]

It is time for GM to greatly increase its C7 cash flex deals to its dealers, in tern they to their direct customers, move out the current 20K unsold C7s, and clear the way for the soonest-possible reveal of the 2020 Corvette ME.

Is it a concern that a large unsold C7 inventory could actually delay the C8 roll-out?

Looks like my dealer has about 3x their normal inventory.

At what point might they shut down the plant for a bit? Isn't that the normal response?

[John]

I do not believe that whatever the unsold inventory level is, the C8 would be delayed even an hour past when it is ready to be assembled for customers. Certainly was not the case in past new-generation Corvette rollouts.

Bikerjulio, you have asked the mega-question, as to when they will stop producing C7 Stingrays, etc. We do not know that information. And perhaps GM is still debating that themselves too.

Evey single generational Corvette change has been accompanied by a Plant shutdown, to remove last-gen specific equipment and to install new gen specific equipment. Of course that is only part of the reason for the shut down, with the second one being employee training.

The greatly enhanced training program was implemented by Plant Manager Kai Spande last fall, during the 13 week shut down. He describes the very cleaver employee training program in this video @ 7;25.

IMO, watching this video starting at that point is super important for all to understand the current training program that is within the Plant to train employees (again first used during last fall’s 13 week shut down) on how they excellently trained BGA staff for the 2019 Stingray’s, etc., and of course it will carry over and be completely repeated for the upcoming 2020 employee training.

[Boomer]

I wonder what factors are leading to the drops? I'm willing to bet that one of them is the fact that the C8 is right around the corner.

I can imagine what C7 sales/demand will be like when it comes time for me to trade mine @ December 2019. The C8 will be all the rage with high demand. But there is a price for everything. As long as its fair and what the market is at the time, I'll be OK with it.

[Bikerjulio]

Seeing as I'm a "keg half full" kind of guy (thanks to SNL for that topical joke), perhaps the poor sales of C7 could lead GM to close down BGA earlier than expected and start C8's earlier? I'm always the optimist.

[meyerweb]

I wonder what factors are leading to the drops? I'm willing to bet that one of them is the fact that the C8 is right around the corner.

It's pretty typical for sales of specialty cars, like sports cars, to tail off after the first few years. These purchasers are driven much more by emotion to a fairly limited audience. Those who are most interested in cars like this tend to buy them in the first few years of production. Without any significant updates (especially visually) since 2015, there's little incentive for current owners to replace their existing models, especially since they tend to be very low mileage vehicles. I think you'll find similar trends for many sports and sporty cars. Even the Mustang has had more visual updates than the Corvette since it's last redesign.

[Boomer]

It's pretty typical for sales of specialty cars, like sports cars, to tail off after the first few years. These purchasers are driven much more by emotion to a fairly limited audience. Those who are most interested in cars like this tend to buy them in the first few years of production. Without any significant updates (especially visually) since 2015, there's little incentive for current owners to replace their existing models, especially since they tend to be very low mileage vehicles. I think you'll find similar trends for many sports and sporty cars. Even the Mustang has had more visual updates than the Corvette since it's last redesign.

Good assessment. I've had no incentive to replace my 2014 C7. It still gets mistaken for a new one. Drives like new. Coupla weeks ago I was asked at a stop light if it was a 2018. For me, buying a new C7 now would almost seem like buying the same car.

[Busa Dave]

Not popular here but the C7 has made its run. It is definitely on the down hill slide. Have no idea why people think they will still be building this car for up to 5 more years. Not going to happen they just do not sell. Bring on the C8 and all variants!!!!

[Busa Dave]

I can imagine what C7 sales/demand will be like when it comes time for me to trade mine @ December 2019. The C8 will be all the rage with high demand. But there is a price for everything. As long as its fair and what the market is at the time, I'll be OK with it.

Boomer mine is completely out of the norm for consideration of "market value" because of all of the modifications (kills resale) HOWEVER, I share your concern and would bet a large sum of money that when the C8 hits the C7's will still be flooding the dealer lots and with lots of incentive money the used market will be tanking. My .02.

[Ateupjoe]

Dave, it begs the question what's yours going to be worth? I upgraded from the Z51 to the Grand Sport during last years major dip.....maybe a black fire breathing dragon could fit in my garage when the timing is right?

[meyerweb]

Not popular here but the C7 has made its run. It is definitely on the down hill slide. Have no idea why people think they will still be building this car for up to 5 more years. Not going to happen they just do not sell. Bring on the C8 and all variants!!!!

I dont' know about five, but the company that makes the body panels for the C7 stated, publicly, they'd be making them for two more years after they start making them for a "new" model.

[John]

meyerweb,

That statement was made i2 1/2 years ago in an Economic Development Grant application Continental Structural Plastic made to their local County Council when they were seeing a tax abatement for their expansion plans. I have zero doubt it was 100% honest and accurate then. However, with the way OEMs are cancelling and starting new models in the last two years, that has little to no relevance as we/they approach the 2020 model year.

I showed that article to the # 2 member of the Corvette team, Assistant Chief Engineer Phil Minch, at the 2016 Bash two months later. He became visually shocked, saying, of no, “is that out there?” He said that no one on the Corvette team knew that info was now public, turning white as he read it on my iPad. It was accurate then, as in:http://www.huntingtoncountytab.com/c...-two-new-lines

That statement was probably accurate as little as a year ago.

As my Dad used to say, “that was then, and this is now.”

[Busa Dave]

I dont' know about five, but the company that makes the body panels for the C7 stated, publicly, they'd be making them for two more years after they start making them for a "new" model.

Anything is possible but subject to change due to slow sales.... My Dealer has 33 new in stock 17, 18 and 19 models with the majority of those new unsold 17 models sales folks I know there say they just are not selling. If the Dealers do not order them GM will slow down or stop building them. What somebody in the GM Supply Chain states publicly is completely different than what GM will be issuing a Firm contract for. Automotive manufacturing is 100% at the mercy of demand... All I can say is we shall see what happens.